You Decided to Run for Office, Now What? A Strategic Approach to Timing Your Candidate Announcement Part I

Announcing a political run is a pivotal moment for any candidate and timing is one of the most critical factors that can determine the success or failure of the campaign. Whether you're eyeing a local, state, or national office, the timing of an announcement can set the tone for your entire campaign. At Proxima Strategies, we’ve worked with a range of clients and one of the most overlooked aspects by most campaigns is that timing isn't just about when you announce—it’s about aligning with both the political landscape and the voters' mindset. Making sure that the right things are ready prior to announcing a campaign for any elected office requires more than a checklist and intuition, it requires an expertise and strategic planning.

Every part of a campaign should be informed by data and the data suggests that there are many ways to execute on the correct timing, not every solution is the right fit. Proxima has found that there are several elements to a successful timing strategy that apply to every campaign launch. However, just like live theater, no amount of planning, expertise, or money can guarantee the outcome of an election, but having the right tools and expertise along the way will give any candidate the best chance possible.

At Proxima, we have curated a library of expert insights for every step of a campaign. This is a two-part summary guide of Proxima’s strategic approach to determining the right time to announce your candidacy:

1.    Understand the Political Climate

Understanding the political climate is about understanding the context the campaign will be operating in, and how a candidate fits into the narrative of that context. It is crucial to have the vantage point of the current political environment (and having an expert to help with that cannot be overstated). Is there a lot of public frustration about the condition of local roads or energy reliability? Is economic development a hot issue in the state or district? Positioning the announcement to address those key issues can enhance relevance and capture the attention of potential voters.

When evaluating an announcement strategy, it is important to look at factors such as the state of the opposing candidatelandscape as part of the political landscape. If facing an incumbent candidate as opposition, if the incumbent candidate is struggling due to a scandal, or made a politically unpopular decision, it might be an ideal moment to step forward and present yourself as a viable alternative. The other side of the same coin should be carefully weighed in the timing decision. If a candidate has decided to announce during a strong moment for the opposition campaign it will be difficult to break through the noise, not impossible, but a solid public relations strategy is mandatory in order to take advantage of the opportunity.

CASE STUDY: Senator John Fetterman, 2028 Election Cycle

This case study illustrates how a candidate can assess the political climate, aligning a campaign with voter concerns, and evaluate the strategic timing of an announcement in the context of an incumbent candidate’s political standing.

For John Fetterman, the political landscape in Pennsylvania’s Senate race has dramatically evolved since his election, with significant shifts in voter sentiment new issues driving the conversation in his district. As the 2028 election approaches, potential challengers are taking stock of the current political environment. For someone like former U.S. Representative, Conor Lamb, understanding the political climate and how his message aligns with voter concerns is key to gaining traction early in a highly competitive race.

Lamb, as a former elected official who has successfully won election, but also has run against, but lost, to Fetterman, is taking advantage of the political landscape, including the status of Fetterman’s current standing. As Fetterman faces disapproval from the Democratic Party, via dissatisfaction with his votes on key issues, Lamb is soft launching a public relations strategy to test the reaction of voters to his potential candidacy for 2028.

Voters in Fetterman’s district have long been concerned with issues such as healthcare accessibility, economic opportunity, and the condition of infrastructure, particularly the state of local roads and public transportation. However, Lamb is likely evaluating more than just the local political landscape and voter sentiment. Because the Democratic Party itself is frustrated with Fetterman, fundraising and positioning within the party is a major factor for the potential success of a Lamb campaign. It will likely be a two-pronged strategy: on the one hand, Lamb should be prepared to integrate the local hot topics into his messaging, demonstrating how his platform can offer viable solutions; on the other, Lamb will be relying on the Democratic Party to drive a narrative that leaves an opening.

At the end of the day, it will be up to whoever ends up running against Fetterman to identify the most relevant issues and draw clear connections to their platform, whereby enhancing relevance and capturing the attention of potential voters.

EXPERT TIP: Stand on your “why.” For Lamb, it’s crucial to identify the one issue or personal experience that sparked his desire to run. Is it his frustration with local economic development policies? Is it his desire to fix the deteriorating infrastructure in his district? The voters need to understand why Lamb is stepping forward as an alternative to Fetterman. Conviction cannot be faked, and demonstrating authenticity is critical. His "why" should shine through in every campaign speech, event, and interaction, helping to build trust with voters who are looking for a candidate with genuine passion and clear priorities.

2. The Election Calendar

If cash is king, then the election calendar is queen. Every political race generally follows a predetermined schedule, which is set by a governing body relevant to the level of election. This schedule is typically set by election commissions, municipal governments, or constitutional frameworks, depending on the jurisdiction. Announcing a run too early can mean the campaign losing momentum before the campaign season truly begins, waiting too long might mean losing out on early donor support and building the necessary infrastructure. Typically, candidates announce at least a year before an election in order to build momentum, raise funds, and develop a strong base of volunteers.

• Federal Elections: For races at the federal level the schedule is primarily governed by federal law. The U.S. Constitution provides the framework for election dates while specific details like primary dates and filing deadlines are overseen by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

• State and Local Elections: At the state and local levels, election schedules are determined by state laws, local charters, or election commissions. Each state has its own rules for the timing of primary and general elections, as well as deadlines for candidate filing and other important milestones. For municipal elections, local governments or commissions will typically set the schedule in accordance with state law.

While election schedules are generally fixed, there are instances where they can be adjusted: special elections, emergency situations (such as natural disasters or public health crises), or legal challenges can prompt changes in the timing or rescheduling of elections.

3. Monitor Voter Sentiment

Voters’ attitudes and priorities evolve throughout the year, and every candidate should be able to ‘read the room’ and understand when it's right to jump in. Announcing at a time when voters are particularly focused on a key issue presents an opportunity to shape the discourse. For example, if voters are passionate about healthcare reform and it is a key platform issue for the candidate, then announcing while healthcare is a hot topic can help a campaign tap into that energy.

There are many tools a candidate has at their disposal to determine voter sentiment, whether the campaign has the financial war chest to pursue all of them to their full efficacy is often the problem. Prioritizing the data collection part of the campaign is necessary to understand voter sentiment from a data-driven perspective rather than anecdotal gut-reactions (follow Proxima on LinkedIn or sign up for the Proxima Digest to get insights on setting a campaign budget, choosing campaign staff, fundraising strategies, and so much more).

Similarly, if you're running for office in a jurisdiction that has recently experienced a crisis or significant change such as a natural disaster, economic downturn, or shift in leadership, timing an announcement to coincide with public concern over these issues can be an advantage by positioning a candidate as a clear voice on a critical issue.

4. Consider the Political Season

Every political season is unique. National election cycles tend to have a predictable calendar, with primaries typically starting around six months before the election date. Pay attention to the political calendar and be strategic about your timing. For example, if you’re running for a local office, consider announcing after the holidays but before the election season officially ramps up.

It’s also important to factor in any local or national events that could draw attention away from your campaign. For instance, avoid launching your campaign during an election season when voters’ focus will be divided, like during the national presidential race.